Covid-19: a new study reveals the number of lives saved by confinements and vaccination

Covid-19: a new study reveals the number of lives saved by confinements and vaccination

A new study aimed at evaluating the effectiveness of restrictive measures – confinements and curfews – but also the vaccination policy, decided during the Covid-19 pandemic, has just been published. TipsForWomens asked Dr Gérald Kierzek, emergency doctor, to give us his point of view.

A new study on the Covid-19 pandemic at work has just been published: it focuses more particularly on the effects of restrictive measures and vaccination policy in Europe, between March 2020 and October 2021.

“Without a vaccine, we would have faced nearly 160,000 additional deaths”

Researchers from the University and CHU of Bordeaux, but also from Inserm, the Inria Center of the University of Bordeaux and Canadian scientists from McGill University worked “based on a mathematical model and public data available in Europe by department, between March 2020 and October 2021″to estimate “the major impact of confinements and curfews“.

The experts evaluated different situations, such as the hypothesis of a situation without a vaccine, or if it had been available after 100 days after the start of the epidemic. In the first scenario, the researchers believe that there would have been “159,000 additional deaths and 1.48 million more cases of hospitalization in Europe, i.e. double the number of deaths because the epidemic has caused 116,000 deaths in our country and led to 460,000 hospitalizations..

In the second hypothesis, on the contrary, 71,000 deaths and 38,000 hospitalizations could have been avoided,”i.e. almost a third of deaths and three quarters of hospitalizations“.

Confinements that could have prevented deaths

Still according to this study, the first confinement would have been the most effective with “un reduction in virus transmission by 84%“By bringing forward the curfew to 6 p.m. instead of 8 p.m., this would also have been “more effective” with a reduction in viral transmission of 68% compared to 48%.”Although school closures had a more limited effect, they still reduced transmission by 15%. also note the scientists.

They also estimate, based on the results of their simulation, “that confinement in Europe a week earlier would have prevented 20,000 deaths“.

“Mathematical models that do not reflect real life”

TipsForWomens asked Dr Gérald Kierzek to give his point of view on this study. “This mathematical modeling does not reflect real life. The confinements and the various restrictive measures have had a considerable impact on the population, we can see the damage today” the doctor immediately emphasizes.

Young people have never been in so much trouble when it comes to their mental health, on the one hand” he notes, “without forgetting the support delays of certain pathologies and screening, in cancers in particular“adds the doctor.”This is the reality and these are delays which could have cost some people their lives.” he concludes.